First, Do No Harm

Governor Schwarzenegger's health insurance plan is premised on a false assumption about the uninsured.
Universal coverage is, once again, the new big idea in health care. In mid-January the AARP and the service employees' union teamed up with the Business Roundtable to demand affordable, quality care for all. Massachusetts is implementing reforms aimed at covering everyone. In a dozen more states legislators are considering large-scale efforts to expand insurance. Even President Bush is talking about a sweeping tax reform package that would help millions of self-employed individuals pay for health care.

Of all the new proposals, the most ambitious, and likely most influential, comes from California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. That's a scary prospect. The governor has based his plan, heavy on government expansion and interference, on a faulty diagnosis of the uninsured. If politicians really want to achieve "affordable, accessible and equitable" health care, as the governor suggests, they will need to consider less government intervention, not more.

The governor advocates a massive expansion of Medicaid and other government programs. He wants to regulate not only how insurance companies sell their policies but also how much they should spend on patient care. He proposes a host of new taxes and spending, ultimatums to force businesses and individuals to buy insurance and a raft of new regulations. Some ideas, like the new fees he wants to impose on physicians, have already provoked angry objections. Yet practically everyone praises the governor for his vision of universal coverage.

The uninsured are depicted in popular culture as lost and forgotten--the single mother in the emergency room struggling to make ends meet for her three children. But the uninsured are a heterogeneous group. Drawing on Census Bureau data, the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association found in a 2003 report that a third of the uninsured have family incomes of more than $50,000 a year, and for 16% of the uninsured, incomes exceed $75,000 a year. A Health Affairs study on nonpoor uninsured Californians pegs their average annual health spending at $200 per person. Many people have done the math and have decided not to get coverage. In addition, a third of the uninsured already qualify for Medicaid or some other type of program. Of the remaining third, many are without insurance for only a brief period, usually less than a year.

To be sure, there are 8 million Americans who slip through the cracks, unable to get coverage. But that's far fewer than the commonly quoted disaster figure of 46 million.

What needs to be done? The governor should start by ending the universal-coverage obsession so common in political circles. That includes his plan to cover children in public programs, even kids in families with incomes as high as $60,000 a year.

He should propose a two-pronged plan. First, he should make health insurance more affordable. For decades, state legislators have demanded increased coverage for various services, including in vitro fertilization, clinical trials and visits with chiropractors, social workers and acupuncturists. Only six states have more mandates than California. A small business in Los Angeles can't buy no-frills health insurance. Coverage mandates must be scrapped. And Schwarzenegger should work to make health care itself less expensive. Get rid of laws that protect providers from competition and create cartels of hospitals and other institutions.

Health savings accounts, authorized by Congress in 2003, should be popularized. Give millions of state employees this option. Level the tax playing field by giving individuals the same tax deductions (on state returns) that employers get when buying health insurance, since the federal tax code presently favors the latter group.

California should focus government aid on those who need help. Nationally, roughly $35 billion is already spent on the uninsured, but the money funds a labyrinth of bureaucracies and programs. Instead, government should provide vouchers to cover part of the cost of private insurance.

How many of these recommendations are contained in the governor's plan? Exactly one: greater tax fairness for people who don't get health insurance on the job. The rest of the plan is quite unhealthful.

David Gratzer, M.D. Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and Author of The Cure: How Capitalism Can Save American Health Care (Encounter Books).

Source :Forbes

Preview:Death of a President

A film that depicts the fictional assassination of President GEORGE W. BUSH doesn't hit theaters until October 27, but tonight, we have your first look at the movie's trailer!

The fictional drama, 'Death of a President,' mixes archival footage with narrative elements, and focuses on the assassination of President Bush in the style of a retrospective documentary. The movie, which quickly became one of the most talked about movies at the recent Toronto Film Festival, will be distributed by Newmarket Films. Newmarket also released the controversial 'Passion of the Christ.'

"It's a striking premise which may be seen as highly controversial," said the film's writer and director, GABRIEL RANGE. But it's a serious film which I hope will open up the debate on where current US foreign and domestic policies are taking us."

In the film, President Bush arrives in Chicago and is confronted by anti-war protesters. As he leaves a venue where he has just made a speech to business leaders, he is shot and killed by a sniper. While the world reacts to the stunning turn of events, a nation-wide manhunt for his killer sweeps through the United States.

Hailed by those who've seen it as breathtakingly original and dangerous, the ninety-minute film is shot in such a way that every inch of the fictional murder of the president appears real, frightening and highly plausible.

Be sure to catch the film's trailer on tonight's "Insider"!

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29 dead as plane catches fire in Iran

TEHRAN (Reuters) - An Iranian airliner caught fire after a tire burst on landing at an airport in the northeast of the country on Friday, killing 29 of the 148 people aboard, state television said.

Earlier reports had suggested a death toll of 80.

Nourollah Rezai-Niaraki, head of Iran's civil aviation organization, told state TV that 43 people on board the plane had been injured but the rest escaped unharmed.


Television pictures showed a broken-up plane with parts of its fuselage charred. The cockpit appeared to be largely unaffected by the fire, as did much of the rear portion of the aircraft.

Firefighters were shown extinguishing fires in parts of the smoldering wreck and clambering over other areas of the fuselage, carrying out corpses covered in blankets.

The plane, a Russian-built Tupolev 154, caught fire at 1.45 p.m. (1015 GMT) after slipping off the side of the runway when a tire burst on landing at the city of Masshad, site of Iran's holiest shrine, state media said.

"The flight crew and the pilot of this flight survived, and this will be a great help to find out the cause of the accident as soon as possible," Roads and Transport Minister Mohammad Rahmati told Iran's students news agency ISNA.

An Iranairtour official, who asked not to be identified, said the airline was contacting families of the victims. He also said flights to Mashhad had been canceled after the crash.
Pilgrims flock to Mashhad throughout the year to visit the tomb of Imam Reza, the eighth Muslim Shi'ite imam. It was not clear if any of those on board the Iranairtour flight were making the pilgrimage.

The southern city of Bandar Abbas, where the plane began its journey, is the Islamic Republic's main port and is located near the popular Iranian holiday destination of Qeshm island.

Air safety experts say Iran has a poor safety record with a string of crashes in recent decades, many involving Russian-made aircraft.


U.S. sanctions on the Islamic state have prevented it from buying new aircraft or spares from the West, forcing it to supplement its aging fleet of Boeing and Airbus planes with aircraft from the former Soviet Union.

The last major plane disaster in Iran involved a military plane which crashed in January, killing at least 11 people. Another military plane hit a tower block in Tehran in December, killing 94 people on board and at least 22 people on the ground.

The most recent Iranian civil aviation disaster involved a Kish airlines Fokker-50 plane, which crashed in February 2004 during landing in Sharjah airport in the United Arab Emirates killing 43 of the 45 passengers and crew aboard.

Russian airplane crashed near Donetsk, 170 people killed

ST. PETERSBURG, August 24 (RIA Novosti) - Uncertainty remains over the number of passengers and crew who lost their lives when a Russian airliner crashed in stormy weather in eastern Ukraine Tuesday.

The Russian Emergency Situation Ministry and Ukraine's transport minister reported earlier Thursday that 171 bodies had been recovered from the crash site.

But Pulkovo Airlines, which owned the three-engine Tu-154 jet, reiterated Thursday that a total of 170 people were on board the plane when it came down and exploded in Ukraine Tuesday. It previously announced the figure on Wednesday.

The St.-Petersburg-based air company said: "According to our data, 170 passengers and crew had checked in for the flight."

The Soviet-designed Tu-154 was flying from the popular Black Sea resort of Anapa to Russia's second city, St. Petersburg, when it crashed 30 miles from the city of Donetsk with the loss of all the passengers - including 45 children - and crew.

Pulkovo said it was unlikely that a passenger had boarded the plane bypassing check-in, but promised to double-check the possibility the same day.

With a lightning strike being considered to be a possible cause of the tragedy, aviation officials also said Thursday they would start work to decipher the plane's flight recorders later on the day.

Thursday has been declared a day of mourning in Russia.

Passenger describes scene aboard diverted plane

WASHINGTON - A Northwest Airlines plane flying from Amsterdam to India was escorted back to the airport by Dutch F-16 fighter jets Wednesday, and police arrested 12 passengers whose behavior had aroused the crew's suspicion.

Coincidentally, among the 149 passengers aboard Northwest Flight NO0042 was the tipster who first alerted the FBI to al-Qaida operative Zacarias Moussaoui's odd behavior at a Minneapolis-area flight school five years ago.

Tim Nelson, who was seated in the forward business-class section, said by phone from Amsterdam that he watched the plane dump fuel as it circled back toward the airport, while several federal air marshals appeared in the front of the cabin, hanging their badges around their necks to keep order.

"It was tense," Nelson said, but he said the marshals never flashed weapons. He praised the marshals and flight crew for doing "an outstanding job."

Nelson said it remained unclear whether the flight crew was responding to a serious terrorist incident or "it was just a misunderstanding, where you had unsophisticated people flying."

U.S. government officials, who requested anonymity, said crew members and air marshals observed the passengers in the rear of the wide-bodied DC-10 trying to use cell phones and passing them around during and shortly after takeoff from Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam. Cell phone use is barred on both U.S. and international flights. Some of the passengers also were trying to change seats, they said.

The Dutch Defense Ministry said that while the plane was over German airspace just after takeoff, the pilot radioed for permission to return to Schiphol and asked for an escort of jet fighters, the Associated Press reported. It said two F-16s scrambled from a northern military airfield, and routine security measures were swiftly put in place.

Nelson and a fellow flight-school program manager have been hailed as heroes for their phone calls that led to Moussaoui's Aug. 16, 2001, arrest and brought the FBI tantalizingly close to uncovering the Sept. 11 terror plot.

Moussaoui pleaded guilty to six conspiracy counts in 2005 and, after a jury narrowly spared him the death penalty last spring, is serving a life sentence without the possibility of release from a "supermax" prison in Colorado.

Dutch police spokesman Rob Staenacker told the AP that he couldn't disclose the nationalities of those arrested Wednesday or the nature of the suspicions against them. Nelson said he watched Dutch police come aboard in threes and escort a dozen men, 10 of them appearing to be of Pakistani or Middle Eastern descent, from the plane one by one in a remote parking area at the airport.

"Some they handcuffed before they took them out," he said. "One guy was a white guy, with a tie-dyed shirt, a beard and dreadlocks. He looked like a hippie. There was an older man who appeared to be of Indian descent."

A few of the others had beards, and some were dressed in shalwar kameez - traditional long shirts and baggy pants, Nelson said.

The incident was the latest of several terror alerts and flight diversions in the two weeks since British police shut down an alleged Islamic plot to smuggle liquid explosives aboard aircraft and detonate them, possibly with cell phones.

Nelson said he was with a flight crew for a Northwest subsidiary, Classic Aviation, en route to Bombay, India, to ferry a plane with a mechanical problem back to an Amsterdam repair facility.

About 15 minutes into the flight, he said, members of the cabin crew hurried past him and stood in the front of the cabin, pointing to the rear.

Nelson said the lead flight attendant then made an announcement over the plane's broadcast system advising everyone to remain in his or her seats.

"They needed to get a head count. People were moving around in the back, and they needed to get back in their proper seats," Nelson said.

Then the flight attendant made a second announcement, saying that something was going on and that air marshals were aboard.

Nelson said several marshals stood near him at the front of the cabin, but he couldn't see what was going on behind him. Nelson said he and his fellow crewmembers advised flight attendants that they were available to help if needed, but that was unnecessary because everyone remained calm.

Bombers targeted U.S. flights; Terrorists planned to use drink bottles: U.S

Bombers targeted U.S. flights; Terrorists planned to use drink bottles: U.S

CAROLINE MALLAN

SPECIAL TO THE STAR

British tactical officers stand guard outside London's
Ministry of Defence Aug. 10. The entire British capital
was in a heightened state of readiness after this
morning's terror arrests.


British police carry out forensic investigations at a
house in the Waltham stow area of north London,
during a raid by British police

Thursday Aug. 10, 2006.

LONDON - The terrorist attack foiled by British authorities today was aimed at blowing up as many as 10 airplanes on transatlantic flights and plotters had hoped to stage a dry run within the next two days, U.S. intelligence officials said.

The actual attack would have followed within days. Early reports allege the involvement of the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba, or LeT.

The test run was designed to see whether the plotters would be able to smuggle the needed materials aboard the planes, the officials said. They spoke only on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject matter.

As a result of the revelations, much of the world was plunged into a full-scale terror alert.

British authorities arrested 24 people based partly on intelligence from Pakistan, where authorities detained up to three others several days earlier. More arrests were expected, the official said. The suspects were believed to be mainly British Muslims, at least some of Pakistani ancestry, and the official said some had gone to Pakistan recently.

A senior U.S. counter-terrorism official said the suspects, whose ages ranged from 17 to the mid-30s, were looking to sneak at least some chemicals on the planes in sports drink bottles. Teams of at least two or three men were assigned to each flight, the schedules for which they had researched on the Internet, the official said.

A U.S. law-enforcement official in Washington said at least one martyrdom tape was found during continuing raids across England on Thursday. Such a tape, as well as the scheme to strike a range of targets at roughly the same time, is an earmark of al Qaeda.

Raids were carried out at homes in London, the nearby town High Wycombe and in Birmingham, in central England. Searches continued throughout the day and police cordoned off streets in several locations. Police also combed a wooded area in High Wycombe.

Hamza Ghafoor, 20, who lives across the street from one of the homes raided in Walthamstow, northeast of London, said police circled the block in vans Wednesday and they generally swoop into the neighbourhood to question “anyone with a beard.”

“(He) didn’t do nothing wrong,” Ghafoor said, referring to a suspect.

“He played football. He goes to the mosque.”

“He’s a nice guy.”

U.S. counter-terrorism officials said United, American, and Continental airlines bound for New York, Washington and California were targeted by the terrorists. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said the individuals plotted to detonate liquid explosive devices on as many as 10 aircraft bound for the United States.

A British police official said the suspects were “homegrown,” though it was not clear if they were all British citizens. He said authorities were working with Britain’s large South Asian community.

In Paris, French Interior Minister Nicholas Sarkozy said the group “appears to be of Pakistani origin,” but did not provide the source of his information. Britain’s Home Office, which announced the arrests, refused comment.

In Pakistan, an intelligence official said an Islamic militant arrested near the Afghan-Pakistan border several weeks ago provided a lead that played a role in “unearthing the plot” that helped British authorities arrest suspects in Britain.

A senior Pakistani government official said “two or three local people” suspected in the plot were arrested a few days ago in Lahore and Karachi.

Early news reports in the U.K. singled out Continental, American and United airlines as the targeted carriers for the waves of simultaneous attacks, 10 of which were allegedly planned in total.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the terrorists planned to use liquid explosives disguised as beverages and other common products and detonators disguised as electronic devices.

In response, many world airports _ including Canada - banned carry-on luggage. And no liquid - bottle water, soda pop, coffee - save for baby formula is being allowed into the cabin.

Heathrow was closed to most flights from Europe, and British Airways cancelled all its flights between the airport and points in Britain, Europe and Libya. Numerous flights from U.S. cities to Britain were cancelled.

There are also delays at Toronto's Pearson International Airport as new security measures forced back-ups in loading passengers.

Planes to New York, for example, were being delayed by up to an hour because of the increased security, the Star's Sunaya Sapurji reported from New York.

"The problem in Toronto was that the flight crew also had to go through increased security and that held up our plane," she said from New York's LaGuardia Aiport.

"Here in New York, it's insane. The lineup to go through the security gates is so long that it's stretched almost out to the baggage claim area, although a security officer I spoke to said domestic flights are only delayed about 30 minutes at this point."

Sapurji said security personnel at Pearson were going around the terminal, as well as making announcements over the loudspeakers, asking passengers checking in to get rid of any liquids they might have in their carry-on luggage.

"People had to either finish or throw away bottled water or coffee before they were allowed to board."

Canadian officials said the increased security measures would be in effect for at least 72 hours.

Tony Douglas, Heathrow’s managing director, said the airport hoped to resume normal operations Friday, but international passengers would still face delays and a ban on cabin baggage "for the foreseeable future."

British authorities only began publishing the perceived risk of a terror threat last month – a year after London’s transportation system was targeted by suicide bombers who killed 52 commuters - and yesterday raised the alert to critical, the highest possible level. That effectively means that police consider the country to be under attack.

The suspects were “homegrown,” though it was not immediately clear if they were all British citizens, said a British police official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the case. Police were working closely with the South Asian community, the official said.

The suicide bombing assault on London subway trains and a bus on July 7, 2005, was carried out by Muslim extremists who grew up in Britain.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair is on vacation in Barbados and reportedly phoned U.S. President George W. Bush overnight to tell him about the terror sweep that was underway.

At Heathrow this morning, travelers were coping with the prospect of long delays and heightened security with considerable understanding.

Janet Kellogg, her husband Dennis and daughter Katelyn were lining up to check in for their American Airlines flight home to Chicago after spending 10 days on a cruise around the British Isles.

"They’re telling us what they can and they’re doing the best they can and you can’t ask for much more," Janet Kellogg said of the large number of airline and airport security staff on hand to answer questions from beleaguered passengers.

Kellogg said she and her family will not be deterred from flying despite the abrupt end to the holiday.

"When it’s your time, it’s your time and these people aren’t going to stop us from living our lives. It’s as simple as that from my point of view," she said.

All hand luggage was banned from all flights taking off in Britain. Only passports, small wallets and essential medication and eyeglasses were allowed on the planes. Permitted items had to be put in clear plastic bags being distributed by security staff.

At security, each passenger was being hand-searched and all shoes were removed for inspection.

All liquids were banned with the exception of bottled baby milk and formula, which parents were required to drink in front of security staff before being allowed to board the plane.

Similar new security measures were being enacted in airports across North America.

Even airline staff, including pilots, were carrying their passports and security tags in clear plastic bags.

Michael and Anne Marie Gibbons were waiting for news on their cancelled flight from London to Donegal in Ireland.

Traveling with two small children, Anne Marie Gibbons said not being able to take games, books and toys on board the plane would be a challenge.

"We’re lucky it’s only a short flight, so we’ll be fine once we eventually get going," she said, adding that she feels for parents facing long-haul flights with no way to amuse their children.

The security operation in London extended beyond the city’s four airports to major train stations as well.

At London’s Paddington station, where passengers catch an express train to Heathrow, armed police were inspecting passports and luggage on the platforms before allowing passengers to board the trains.

At all airports, police sniffer dogs were visible, as were armed tactical unit officers.

At Heathrow’s Terminal 1, where most flights for the day were cancelled, police had to block off the entrances to the terminal because of the number of people filling the departure hall.

At the Air Canada check-in at Heathrow’s Terminal 3, students Hilary Weddell and Jordan Schriner, both 19, were hoping to board their flight home to Vancouver after spending a year in Britain volunteering at local schools.

The pair said they heard the news on the radio first thing this morning and were waiting to phone their families in Kamloops once they had a better idea of what was going on.

"I’m pretty nervous and I am really looking forward to getting home, it’s been a year," said Weddell of the long delay ahead of her. "I don’t want to worry my family until I know more, so I’ll hold off and call once it’s morning there."

Dorothy and Paul Ryan from Birmingham were in the snaking line-up for a flight to Toronto for their first trans-Atlantic trip and a two-week vacation touring Canada.

"I figure this is one of the safest days to fly, they’re being very careful," said Paul Ryan of the trip ahead of them.

Dorothy Ryan said while the news was upsetting, she and her fellow travelers understood that the security precautions needed to be taken.

British Home Secretary John Reid made the dramatic announcement about the terror arrests in a televised early morning address, an extremely unusual step for a British cabinet minister.

"Overnight, the police have carried out a major counterterrorism operation to disrupt what we believe to be a major threat to the U.K. and international partners," a stone-faced Reid told reporters. "The police, acting with the security police MI5, are investigating an alleged plot to bring down a number of aircraft through mid-flight explosions, causing a considerable loss of life."

The deputy commissioner at Scotland Yard, Paul Stephenson, went even further, saying that the plans amounted to "mass murder on an unimaginable scale."

"We believe that the terrorists’ aim was to smuggle explosives onto airplanes in hand luggage and to detonate these in-flight," Stephenson told reporters.

Early reports allege the involvement of the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and say that some of the accused may have travelled abroad for training.

The home of the group’s former leader, Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, was raided this morning. But officials did not connect this raid and Saeed’s house arrest with the London case.

Saeed is being detained for what Pakistani officials say are “security reasons.” He led LeT until the group was banned in 2002 and is currently the leader of the Jamaat al-Dawat group.

Saeed was expected to lead a rally at a public park in Lahore on Saturday to mark Pakistan’s independence from British rule on Aug. 14, 1947, Associated Press reports.

LeT was formed as a Pakistani separatist group fighting for independence in Kashmir against India. India’s intelligence agency has accused the group of orchestrating last month’s synchronized train bombings that killed 182 people in Bombay and claim the group is internationally funded with a base in London.

In recent years, Western intelligence agencies have warned that the group intends on taking its fight beyond the borders of Kashmir, and have aligned with the Taliban and support an “Al Qaeda ideology.”

There are also unconfirmed reports of new camps run by the group in Bangladesh, close to the border with India.

Both Canada and Britain have designated LeT as a terrorist organization.
With files from the star's Michelle Shephard and the Associated Pre

France takes lead role on Lebanon

France is at the centre of intense diplomatic
efforts to bring about a ceasefire in Lebanon,
in the face of grave risks that the conflict could
spread out of control. Does France hold the key to
peace in the Middle East?

France now has the key role, with the US, in achieving a ceasefire agreement through the UN Security Council.

French diplomats speak of the need to take due account of Lebanese and other Arab states' objections to the draft UN resolution, as well as core Israelidemands. They face a painfully hard task to reconcile the wishes of
both sides.

France's big foreign policy idea also faces its toughest test yet: it is that the US has destabilised the Middle East through its mistakes, like the invasion of Iraq, and that France can do better as the champion of an alternative European strategy.

The reputation of French President Jacques Chirac is at stake, too. His dismally low support rating shows signs of improving thanks to recent high-profile French diplomacy.

Mr Chirac may hope to score a dramatic international success before next May, when his long political career is expected to end. Success or failure over Lebanon could spell the difference between glory and shame for him and his Gaullist ideas about shaping the world.

US challenged

So while the world watches in dismay the latest outbreak of a deep-rooted armed conflict across the Israel-Lebanon border, another long-standing rivalry is being played out from New York to Beirut - the diplomatic
struggle between the US and France.

The French Foreign Minister, Philippe Douste-Blazy, revealed the huge importance Paris attaches to this contest.

"An important victory for French diplomacy" is how he described the 1 August agreement by EU foreign ministers to follow the logic of France, calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities.

France insisted there could be no military solution to the crisis - so Israel must stop the shooting, as well as Hezbollah. The French also led European protests at what was called Israel's "disproportionate" military response to Hezbollah's provocation.

But the Americans, backed by Britain, placed top priority on allowing Israel to severely weaken Hezbollah for its own long-term security - by that logic an early ceasefire should not be imposed on Israeli forces before that goal is achieved.

The circumstances of this crisis uniquely favour a central role for France:

• France is the former colonial power in Lebanon, and a self-styled "friend of the Arab world"; it is the only Western power to have cultivated close links with Arab governments of all kinds, including the former regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq

• America is politically weakened: militarily stretched in Iraq, and widely seen as having lost the moral authority needed to dictate events
  
• Britain, the other ex-great power in the region, is seen in the Arab world as compromised by its closeness to the US. It has declined to send troops to a multinational force for Lebanon, leaving France as first choice to lead it.

This could just be a French win-win situation. Their Lebanon diplomacy is helping to mend bruised relations with the Americans.

But Mr Douste-Blazy has also openly fuelled the impression that his country is seeking to fulfil an old ambition - to replace US dominance in global affairs with a European alternative led by France.

He hailed recent events as proof that "a political Europe exists", and that we live in a "multipolar world" - a phrase much used by President Chirac to challenge American authority in 2003 over the invasion of Iraq.

EU support

The active French stance enjoys wide support in the European Union. Many leaders are frustrated or angry about what they see as America's culpable failure to advance the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians - the key element needed for the region's long-term stability.

Most Arab states would also welcome a bigger European say in the region's affairs.

Europe has also offered - yet again - to help rebuild Lebanon once the violence is over.

Informally, it is said that France might provide 5,000 troops for a multinational force of around 15,000 in southern Lebanon.

Yet France must also weigh up the acute military and diplomatic risks in taking on the lead role in any outside effort to sort out the Lebanon crisis on the ground:

• Peacekeeping: whatever UN resolutions may say about a ceasefire binding on Israel and Hezbollah forces, any peacekeeping mission in Lebanon will be dangerous. France lost 58 marines killed in a suicide bombing in Beirut in 1983, during an earlier attempt to impose order; the US suffered 241 deaths on the same day
  
  Like France, other nations including Turkey, Norway and Italy say any commitment to send troops to Lebanon would be conditional on satisfactory terms. Germany, the largest EU state, has ruled itself out because of other commitments and sensitivities towards Israel related to the Nazi-era Holocaust

Syria: France's traditionally strong ties with Damascus may be useless, after the two nations fell out over Syria's alleged role in last year's assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and the forced withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Yet without Syrian consent no long-term settlement will be secure

Iranian contradictions: France is committed, with the EU and US, to a tough stance towards Iran over its nuclear programme. Yet Iran, as Hezbollah's other main backer, has the power to wreck any agreement and to threaten Israel. The contradiction was plain when the French foreign minister met his Iranian counterpart in Beirut and lauded Iran as a "stabilising force" in the region

• The French homeland: Mr Chirac says he fears angry Muslim passions over the Middle East may be imported into France itself; that risk would grow if France leads a controversial peacekeeping mission in Lebanon.

France has won general praise for being willing to lead efforts to bring peace to Lebanon. But the hardest part still lies ahead.